Syrian activists along the Turkish border describe a lopsided conflict bearing little resemblance to Libya, with Iraq lending Bashar al-Assad's regime American surveillance equipment and Iran supplying snipers, tear gas and riot gear. While Syria's complex ethnic and religious makeup and strategic position point to a long, smoldering conflict, this year's US and French elections all but rule out Western assistance. - Derek Henry Flood (Jan 27, '12)

European poodles will soon discover they have cocked their legs in high wind after playing fetch to the United States on the Iranian oil embargo. The blowback is high oil prices, and the strong possibility of a Greek government bond default sparking renewed catastrophe in the eurozone. The rest of the world is dismissing sanctions and all across Eurasia trade is fast moving away from the greenback. - Pepe Escobar (Jan 27, '12)

A number of influential members of the United States foreign policy establishment - including prominent liberal interventionists who had supported the Iraq war - are now warning against "letting a bunch of ignorant, sloppy-thinking politicians and politicized foreign-policy experts" further escalate tensions with Iran. - Jim Lobe (Jan 27, '12)

China is considered key to ending the crisis in the Horn of Africa as Sudan's President Omar al-Bashir puts a US$15 billion price-tag on the survival of his Western-backed, breakaway neighbor South Sudan. That is the value Bashir seeks to exact to keep open the pipeline from the South that supplies 5% of China's oil imports. After doing the strategic math on what amounts to a multi-billion-dollar, multi-decade punt, Beijing will likely keep the book shut. - Peter Lee (Jan 27, '12)

Military experts are questioning Jakarta's decision to purchase Leopard 2A6 battle tanks that seem unsuited to Southeast Asian conditions, arguing that - as in a $1.07 billion order for South Korean submarines - the army seems more focused on matching neighbors' arsenals than in meeting the country's strategic needs. - John McBeth (Jan 27, '12)